Patrick Mahomes

Patrick Mahomes enters the 2025 fantasy football season with some uncertainty around his ceiling, yet he remains a solid QB1 option. After dominating the league from 2018 through 2022 as a top-three fantasy quarterback, Mahomes' production dipped in both 2023 and 2024, with his fantasy points per game falling to around 18.4, well below his previous averages. This marks a shift toward a more game-manager style of play rather than his previously explosive numbers, which has caused some fantasy managers to hesitate on drafting him early this year.

Despite the recent downtrend in his passing numbers, Mahomes has maintained a consistent rushing upside, ranking among the top 12 quarterbacks for rushing yards each of the last five seasons. This dual-threat ability keeps his fantasy floor reasonably high, even if his passing touchdowns and accuracy metrics have suffered. Kansas City's offense remains pass-heavy, routinely ranking in the top three for pass attempts, so Mahomes will continue to see plenty of opportunities to rack up fantasy points, though the quality of his deep passing has been a concern as he’s been below average in highly accurate deep throws the past two years.

Currently, fantasy experts rank Mahomes around QB6 to QB14 for 2025 drafts, reflecting this recent decline but also acknowledging his still strong overall talent and volume in a potent offense. He is no longer a lock for the elite quarterback tiers but remains a viable starter who can deliver low-end QB1 production. There are no major injury concerns reported for Mahomes heading into the 2025 season, so availability should not be an issue, keeping him as a dependable target in fantasy leagues.

In summary, while Patrick Mahomes may not replicate the historic fantasy highs of his early career seasons, his rushing prowess and Kansas City's pass-heavy attack still make him a valuable asset. Managers should temper expectations for a return to peak Mahomes but can confidently draft him as a solid fantasy starter, hoping for a bounce-back in his passing efficiency this year. Mahomes' draft position has adjusted accordingly, so savvy drafters may find good value selecting him slightly later than in previous years.

Updated 08/23/2025